• Analyst Sentiment Sours in Q4  

    Market conditions were challenged with spiking correlations and negative sentiment presenting headwinds for stock pickers. Earnings trends were the only bright spot.

  • No Soup for You | 361 Capital Blog  

    Domestic equity markets have not performed well in October. Through Monday October 29, the S&P 500 Index is down 9.36%, and the smaller-capitalized Russell 2000 Index is down 12.92%, on a price return basis. These declines have occurred against the backdrop of what appears to be—at least on the surface—a strong third quarter earnings season.

  • Broken Records: Earnings Strong, but Sentiment Weak  

    Consecutive quarters of record-breaking earnings strength haven’t improved the mood among Wall Street analysts. That negative sentiment spoiled an otherwise healthy backdrop for active managers in the third quarter.

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    In a previous post, we discussed how the interactions between security analysts and the companies they follow often lead to a biased measure of consensus expectations. Here, we focus on what the term consensus implies, what it does not explain, and how it relates to earnings surprises.

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    Earnings season is in full swing. This is the time each quarter when analysts and investors hear from company management regarding the past three months and gauge what that means for the future. Stock prices move based on how the company’s performance is viewed against what was expected. How financial results are judged relative to expectations provides insight into a behavioral anomaly that permeates the market.