• Forecasting Markets  

    With economic outlooks shifting for 2020 with some saying recession, and others expecting continued growth, investors may be coming back to the question of how to position portfolios given uncertainty. To help guide portfolio decision making, forecasting expected returns for the market depends on a belief that either this record-setting 10-year bull market will continue, or that we may see a change in markets over the next year. To illustrate the importance of changing up the bet, we have a few simple questions that can illuminate a path.

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    Ten years have now passed since the stock market bottomed in 2009 and since then U.S. equities have annualized at between 17.38% for large companies and 17.68% for mid-sized companies. These outsized gains, along with the fading memory of 2009, have made it increasingly difficult to maintain a diversified portfolio.

  • Investor FOMO  

    Even though the long-term goal of investors is often capital preservation, fear of missing out—or FOMO—is leading many to ask why alternatives are part of a portfolio when stocks and bonds are marching ever higher.

  • Masters of Long/Short Equity  

    Congratulations to Gary Woodland for winning his first major championship on Sunday. What he showed us on Sunday was nothing short of daring, confident and determined. It was clear from his first tee shot, that Gary was there to WIN, and nothing else was an option. He took a stance, planted his flag firmly in the ground and was committed to his belief in himself. Too often in the investment world, there’s a temptation to chase hot money and we are intimidated to take a stance and plant our flag in the ground.

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    2017 has seen equity markets steadily moving higher, volatility remaining at historically low levels, and trend-following managed futures strategies continuing to languish. Amid this backdrop, investors naturally ask if this has created a buying opportunity, with the expectation that markets, volatility, and trend-following should revert to longer-term averages. This is a reasonable question and expectation, but what really matters is whether investors can predict when this long-awaited mean-reversion will occur. Conventional wisdom says they can’t, but according to a recent article at ValueWalk, it appears the author believes timing managed futures allocations may be possible. In a recent whitepaper, they address “some of the potential benefits, challenges and opportunity costs” seen for investors who are “seeking to time managed futures allocations.”