• How is your Tightrope?

    July 15, 2019

    Slacklines are tough. Great exercise for your core, but it takes hours of practice just to get that balance right. We are entering a phase in the market that will be equally tricky for portfolio managers and advisors. On one hand, we will have the Trade Wars and slowing GDP and earnings growth pushing our stocks in one direction. While, on the other hand, we will have the Fed cutting rates pushing our stocks in the opposite direction. It will feel like we are on a tightrope.

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  • The Halfway Point

    July 8, 2019

    A standing ovation to anyone who felt maximum investment pain on the last Christmas Eve. Had you stuck to your guns, your portfolio likely had an incredible rip higher during the first six months of 2019. Stocks were inches from a -20% bear market drawdown, energy commodities had pulled in by 40% and the credit markets were in a disorderly, illiquid retreat. The Fed took note (along with a threatening POTUS’ sand wedge) and flipped their policy direction from one of tightening to one of loosening.

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  • Cuts are Coming...

    June 24, 2019

    The case for somewhat more accommodative policy has strengthened,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell

    The Fed set the table last week for future rate cuts. They continue to voice the lack of inflation, and have increasingly seen the slowing economic and company data points, so now are feeling more pressure from the White House to cut or lose control of the scissors.

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  • Hong Kong Summerfest

    June 17, 2019

    Imagine a peaceful protest in which one-third of the adult population hit the streets. Well organized, well behaved and they even cleaned up after it was done. Incredible.

    The Fed’s summerfest begins this week as the Fed meets to look at past data and place bets on how quickly the trade wars will slow the U.S. economy. While the market has moved to bet on 75-100 basis points of rate cuts over the next 18 months, few think that the Fed will cut this week. It’s more likely they will be setting out the punch bowl for next month’s FOMC meeting, and then the stock market is looking to grab a cup or two and go crowd surfing.

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  • So Bad it's Good...

    June 10, 2019

    That is where the state of our markets sit currently. The worse the data gets, the more likely the Fed is to lower interest rates. For risk appetites and the stock market, last week’s dismal string of data was like being handed a gigantic banana split. ISM Manufacturing, ADP Employment, DoE Inventories and Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll data were like extra chocolate syrup, whipped cream and bonus maraschino cherries. Fed rate cuts are coming. No longer a matter of if, but when and how much.

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