• "Oi, get your filthy hands off my desert!"

    September 16, 2019

    Roger Waters’ famous lyric from The Final Cut seems like an appropriate pivot for the market’s new attention toward the Middle East. It is not everyday that oil prices spike 10% due to a shutdown in 6% of the world’s oil capacity. I know that I am not the only one surprised at how easy it was to use drone weapons to impact global oil prices.

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  • A Challenging Week for the Tattered Covers

    September 9, 2019

    No wonder bookstores are dying. Tough for the fiction aisle to compete with last week’s Trilateral Commission of Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and Antonio Brown holding court. Back in the non-news world, the economic data remains less than spectacular, there has been no progress on the trade wars and the Central Banks remain in global easing mode.

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  • Who is going to hit the button?

    August 26, 2019

    The POTUS news flow got a little crazy last week. If Twitter didn’t find a way to monetize all that activity, then it is clearly a bad business model. Who would have thought that Jackson Hole would have become such a non-event? Hopefully the fly fishing was still excellent.

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  • Inverted and Underwater

    August 19, 2019

    The markets finally snapped last week as softer economic data out of Germany and China combined with the meltdown in Argentina, protests in Hong Kong and additional cardiac arrests in U.S retail company earnings, pushed investors to the limits. The U.S. yield curve not only fully inverted, but U.S. ten-year yields traded below 1.5%.

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  • Cracks Forming...

    August 12, 2019

    The September 1st tariffs on the rest of China’s imports are looming large and causing the U.S. Economy to slow down further. The big move in the U.S. Treasury market is confirming this fact. If the tariffs are implemented, the ball will then fall into the Fed’s court to try save the U.S. from entering a recession.

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