• Looking for Green

    November 30, 2020

    Your Thanksgiving turkey may have been replaced by a Cornish game hen last week, but your portfolio grew by a pterodactyl during November, so only your belly lost. The major U.S. indexes ended the month rising by double digits, while small caps jumped nearly 20% and the energy sector exploded up 30%. Your portfolio was most thankful for the vaccination, as scientists have moved at light speed to get the new shots moving before Christmas; and also to American voters who split up the U.S. Government into a mile-long rope of tug of war.

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  • Vaccine Mondays on Repeat

    November 23, 2020

    Another Monday, another vaccine announcement, and another surge higher in the stock market. Let’s never get tired of this trifecta. Today, it was Astra Zeneca and Oxford’s turn to put their trial results up on stage. While the initial results were not as positive in efficacy as the Pfizer and Moderna results, they did show that a tweak in the trial would achieve 90% efficacy. And more importantly for those warmer-weather climates along the equator, the vaccine does not need to be kept at super-negative refrigerated temperatures and requires only normal refrigeration.

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  • Summertime

    November 16, 2020

    Summer will be here before you know it and with the new vaccine announcements, it is looking increasing likely that this is when life will return to normal. Currently, the bad news is that all the COVID-19 datapoints are moving in the wrong direction. More Americans are becoming infected, hospitalized and dying because of COVID. The current increase will make more people aware and afraid of the virus, and their increased caution will cause a future decline in the spread. This is happening in Europe now and will happen in the U.S. after Thanksgiving.

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  • Your Double Shot is Ready

    November 9, 2020

    A COVID-19 vaccine plus a split party U.S. government. Christmas has come early for investors this year. The markets were already flying high on the prospect of a Biden Presidency and a GOP Senate, and then Pfizer/BioNTech dropped its vaccine data earlier than expected. Assuming the 90%+ efficacy with few side effects holds, and the vaccine goes into production and distribution holds, then there is the holy grail to return to a normal economy. It won’t happen tomorrow, but the market is a forward-looking machine and will discount out 9-12 months.

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  • Time to Decide

    November 2, 2020

    The market is as anxious as many voters are today. The S&P 500 VIX tapped forty last week, while the market retreated another high single digit percentage off its previous high for the second month in a row. But after tomorrow, uncertainty will turn to certainty, the VIX should retreat and investors will place some new bets on the results of the election. If the polls and massive early voting turnouts are to be believed, this could mean a 46th President and a Democratic Congress.

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