History Suggest Low Return Following a Pandemic

Response of the European real natural rate of interest following pandemics and wars

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Source: Jorda, Oscar, Sanjay R. Singh, Alan M. Taylor. 2020. “Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2020-09. Notes: Response calculated using Equation 4 from paper. Shaded areas are 1 and 2 s.e. bands around response estimates.